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Stephen Su, General Director of IEK, delivered a speech on “Future ICT Industry Trends” at the InnoTech Forum organized by the Department of Industrial Technology (DoIT), MOEA, and ITRI on March 22, 2012. The forum brought together a group of visionaries including Kevin Kelly, the renowned “Digital Prophet” who predicted the advent of social networking and cloud computing.

Stephen first talked about that IEK in recent years has put increasing focus on studying consumer needs and applications scenarios to assist the development of market trends and technology roadmap. Before developing solutions and technologies, he pointed out, the key should be finding out the consumers’ needs.

He said the consumer consumption patterns have been shifting from "Service" to "Experience." As a consequence, the service-based applications being developed by the ICT industry should focus on “access” instead of “ownership” by the consumers. In his speech, Stephen, who was also the moderator of the forum, saw the growing markets of mobile phone and internet communications by the elders in Mainland China and Taiwan, as well as the emergence of remote tourism with live streaming and online interactions.

As an industrial trend observer, he called the year of 2012 “the onset of a warring era in mobile computing,” and that ten major trends should be paid attention to. These include voice control and somatosensory interface technology, Smart-TV, low power and high definition for high-end smart handheld devices, Ultrabook, low-price smart phones, mobile DRAM, huge inroads for Windows, 3D TV, System in Package (SIP), and big data analysis.

He reminded that, however, it would take time for a new technology to be commercialized. The interval between invention disclosure and significant income creation is 10-15 years in general. Therefore, the industrial development in Taiwan should spur industrial upgrade and transformation via continuous innovation and promote a number of emerging “service-based applications ecosystems” to upgrade Taiwan’s industrial competitiveness.

We are very pleased to present his presentation in PDF format for your reference.

經濟部技術處與工研院於4月12日共同舉辦『智庫趨勢論壇』，會中特別邀請到Wired創辦人Kevin Kelly與產經中心主任蘇孟宗等有識之士進行面對面的對談，希望藉由對談與交流，幫助大家掌握科技趨勢。

蘇主任除了擔任此論壇的主持人，同時也發表「ICT產業未來趨勢」演說。在他的演說中，首先介紹IEK近幾年更聚焦消費者需求與應用情境的研究以支援市場趨勢與技術藍圖的發展，並指出在解決方案與技術之前應該先發現需求的重要性。接著他陸續揭示ICT產業幾個未來的趨勢，如：消費者消費模式由使用者「服務」導向 到「體驗」導向的移轉、ICT產業發展的「服務型應用生態體系」、以「使用」取代「擁有」，以及更多兩岸銀髮族行動電話及網路通訊的使用，並且預測了數位旅遊直播與線上互動的新趨勢。

此外，他還指出2012年將是行動運算世代的「戰國元年」，並衍生十大關鍵議題：聲控與體感人機互動技術、智慧電視、低功耗高畫質的高階智慧手持裝置、 Ultrabook超輕薄筆電、平價智慧手機、行動記憶體、Windows的大舉搶攻、3D電視、系統封裝(SIP)商機、巨量資料分析。

最後，他也提醒技術的商品化是需要時間的，一般在專利揭露到創造巨大收益的時間間隔大約10到15年，因此，台灣有必要進一步推廣幾個重點「服務型應用生態體系」，並發展出具備有大中華特色的應用生態體系，才是發揮台灣的創新動能，提升產業競爭力的契機。

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